“But the 2023 Virginia county and city population estimates released today by the Weldon Cooper Center show that a more lasting impact of the pandemic has been high levels of migration continuing to flow out of Virginia’s large metro areas into smaller metro areas and rural counties. The persistence of this trend, which mirrors the transformative effect of suburbanization in the last century, will likely attract the public’s attention during this decade, as it is slowly, but significantly, altering Virginia's demographic landscape.”
“In 2023, many people continued to move out of Northern Virginia, a trend seen in other big metro areas across the country. Many of these people stayed in Virginia, moving to smaller cities and counties nearby. Migration from Northern Virginia helped the Winchester Metro Area become Virginia’s fastest growing metro area, with its population increasing at nearly five times the rate of Virginia as a whole. It also contributed to Richmond Metro Area’s greatest influx of new residents in its history. The four fastest growing counties in Virginia so far this decade—New Kent, Goochland, Louisa, and Caroline—were all in or adjacent to the Richmond Metro Area.”
Northern Virginia is the District of Columbia suburban part of Virginia.
Yeah Winchester just became a bedroom community for the DC area. Extending the size of urban metro areas isn’t the same as say VA coal country getting repopulated. Oren cites 40 million as the population of greater Tokyo. That includes suburbs that are in a not dissimilar commuting distance as Winchester is to Northern VA. I think it’s again fine that people in the US want space. But what you’re saying is just a related version of what Japan does at a closer scale for the US context. It’s not rural Iowa getting repopulated.
That’s not what the census data or Cooper Center article says, though. Read the article.
NoVa people are primarily moving to and living in places like Richmond, Charlottesville, and Winchester and their exurbs. Not commuting from them.
They actually ARE moving to very rural areas. From the articles:
“Yet, examining the 2023 population estimates more closely reveals that Virginia is experiencing a remarkable break from some of its longstanding demographic trends. In 2023, over three-quarters of Virginia’s rural counties outside metro areas had more people move into them than out, the highest share since 1975.”
“Perhaps the most remarkable statistic in the 2023 population estimates data is that last year the country’s rural counties and smallest metro areas—those with fewer than 250,000 residents—became the top destination for people moving within the country for the first time in decades. Migration into these areas rose exponentially during the pandemic, and still, the net number of people moving to them rose again last year. Many of the small towns and rural counties that experienced a surge in new residents last year were places that are relatively attractive to vacationers, such as Georgetown, South Carolina, south of Myrtle Beach. But many other communities less well known to tourists also have seen a surge in new residents in recent years after years of out migration.
Martinsville in southern Virginia is one of them. It was once known as “The Sweatpants Capital of the World” due to its now-closed textile mills, and during the 2010s, Martinsville was part of the poorest state senate district in Virginia. However, in recent years, it has experienced some of the strongest wage growth in Virginia. In 2023, the domestic migration rate into the Martinsville region was the second highest among Virginia’s metropolitan and micropolitan areas.”
What you’re describing is exactly what I said and it’s a continuation of what Adam Ozimek saw post pandemic. But I don’t think it signals a lack of agglomeration effects. People are not moving “anywhere” that’s rural and cheap. They’re moving where they’re still within striking distance of certain places and to places with amenities. Small metros gaining is still an agglomeration effects phenomenon just at a smaller scale. In any case, Tokyo is awesome and you should go there.
Moving out of a big metro to a little one, IMHO, is de-agglomeration. Particularly when the fastest growing counties in those smaller MSAs are nice rural counties that are either on the far edge of the smaller MSA or just outside of it.
Moving out of a city center to a rural county, to occasionally go in to enjoy a museum, is also de-agglomeration.
There isn’t all that much in Virginia that isn’t within an hour or two of a city of some sort.
“Consumer-oriented companies, such as Starbucks, have been among the first to adapt to the dramatically shifting demographic trends that began in 2020. Starbucks has closed hundreds of underperforming urban shops since 2020 and has opened hundreds of locations in small towns across the country that are attracting new residents. Since 2012, the proportion of new Starbucks locations in small towns has grown from 2 percent to over 20 percent in 2022.
While Starbucks may not have the cachet that once attracted David Brooks’ attention, it still needs a critical mass of wealthier than average customers who appreciate its relatively expensive drinks to justify opening a new shop.
In 2021, Starbucks opened its first store in Martinsville, Virginia, the former “Sweatpants Capital of the World,” and since then, a flurry of new Starbucks have opened in nearby small towns across southern Virginia, including Franklin, Galax, and South Boston—all communities that have drawn an increasing number of new residents in recent years.”
FWIW.
Personally, my idea of fun is more farmers markets and horse shows than visiting cities. I don’t hate them, but I don’t want to live in one.
Doesn’t matter. For recreation, I like things outdoors that involve horses, dogs, nature, nature photography, agriculture, or gardening.
Horse show? Yes. Hiking to take nature photos? Yes. Heritage Livestock Festival? Yes. Local Crafts Festival? Yes. Garden festival? Yes. Anything involving concrete or big crowds is generally a no. Not my thing. Regardless of country.
I live about 45 minutes outside of a medium sized city, and I don’t think I have driven into the actual city itself since before the pandemic. I have been in Charlottesville recently, which is a bit further, for lunch with friends. For reference, I work remote in tech, have a very good salary, read a lot, and have a well educated family. Most of my siblings have PhDs. I stopped getting degrees after it became obvious my salary wasn’t dependent on it.
The census data that I provided shows this is a widespread trend, not simply my personal bias, and further shows that population in the US is shifting out of large cities.
That shift also has major implications for the Electoral College, which is off-topic here but a hot button issue in elections coverage. Basically, EC votes are expected to shift from places like California, New York, and Illinois to places like Utah, Idaho, and Texas. There was a discussion of that on Bill Maher this week, if you get HBO or Max.
I prefer this lifestyle, but frankly it was easier and cheaper before it became a widespread trend. The large number of people moving out has resulted in greatly increased demand (and prices) for rural homes and land.
In the US! My point was and is that without Tokyo’s growth things may have been worse for Japan. I’m talking about a trend that’s continued for decades and has impacted how Japan developed over that whole time. You’re talking about 3 years of changes in one state in the US. It’s great if you personally like de agglomeration. It’s great that it might have some benefits someplace. But you’re just talking about what you want to talk about and not responding to my point. Japan has cheap housing in commuting distance to Tokyo! It’s not like here. They just build build build. Tokyo hasn’t seen a real increase in housing prices in 30 years!!!
Not just the US - and the trend in the US is NATIONAL, not just in one state, which is why the electoral college has been affected. That was in the articles, BTW. Also, the pandemic started five years ago, not three.
See similar patterns in Britain, Australia, and Ireland,
My point is, the housing problem appears to be largely a byproduct of agglomeration, and de-agglomerating appears to be the preferred solution for a LOT of people across multiple developed countries.
The US has already started de-agglomerating, and rural decay, overall, has started to reverse, per census data.
UVa’s Cooper Center has done a good bit of analysis of these trends, which are very noticeable in Virginia.
See for example https://www.coopercenter.org/research/remote-work-persists-migration-continues-rural-america
Or
https://www.coopercenter.org/research/amid-slow-population-growth-virginias-demographic-landscape-being-transformed
“But the 2023 Virginia county and city population estimates released today by the Weldon Cooper Center show that a more lasting impact of the pandemic has been high levels of migration continuing to flow out of Virginia’s large metro areas into smaller metro areas and rural counties. The persistence of this trend, which mirrors the transformative effect of suburbanization in the last century, will likely attract the public’s attention during this decade, as it is slowly, but significantly, altering Virginia's demographic landscape.”
“In 2023, many people continued to move out of Northern Virginia, a trend seen in other big metro areas across the country. Many of these people stayed in Virginia, moving to smaller cities and counties nearby. Migration from Northern Virginia helped the Winchester Metro Area become Virginia’s fastest growing metro area, with its population increasing at nearly five times the rate of Virginia as a whole. It also contributed to Richmond Metro Area’s greatest influx of new residents in its history. The four fastest growing counties in Virginia so far this decade—New Kent, Goochland, Louisa, and Caroline—were all in or adjacent to the Richmond Metro Area.”
Northern Virginia is the District of Columbia suburban part of Virginia.
Yeah Winchester just became a bedroom community for the DC area. Extending the size of urban metro areas isn’t the same as say VA coal country getting repopulated. Oren cites 40 million as the population of greater Tokyo. That includes suburbs that are in a not dissimilar commuting distance as Winchester is to Northern VA. I think it’s again fine that people in the US want space. But what you’re saying is just a related version of what Japan does at a closer scale for the US context. It’s not rural Iowa getting repopulated.
That’s not what the census data or Cooper Center article says, though. Read the article.
NoVa people are primarily moving to and living in places like Richmond, Charlottesville, and Winchester and their exurbs. Not commuting from them.
They actually ARE moving to very rural areas. From the articles:
“Yet, examining the 2023 population estimates more closely reveals that Virginia is experiencing a remarkable break from some of its longstanding demographic trends. In 2023, over three-quarters of Virginia’s rural counties outside metro areas had more people move into them than out, the highest share since 1975.”
“Perhaps the most remarkable statistic in the 2023 population estimates data is that last year the country’s rural counties and smallest metro areas—those with fewer than 250,000 residents—became the top destination for people moving within the country for the first time in decades. Migration into these areas rose exponentially during the pandemic, and still, the net number of people moving to them rose again last year. Many of the small towns and rural counties that experienced a surge in new residents last year were places that are relatively attractive to vacationers, such as Georgetown, South Carolina, south of Myrtle Beach. But many other communities less well known to tourists also have seen a surge in new residents in recent years after years of out migration.
Martinsville in southern Virginia is one of them. It was once known as “The Sweatpants Capital of the World” due to its now-closed textile mills, and during the 2010s, Martinsville was part of the poorest state senate district in Virginia. However, in recent years, it has experienced some of the strongest wage growth in Virginia. In 2023, the domestic migration rate into the Martinsville region was the second highest among Virginia’s metropolitan and micropolitan areas.”
What you’re describing is exactly what I said and it’s a continuation of what Adam Ozimek saw post pandemic. But I don’t think it signals a lack of agglomeration effects. People are not moving “anywhere” that’s rural and cheap. They’re moving where they’re still within striking distance of certain places and to places with amenities. Small metros gaining is still an agglomeration effects phenomenon just at a smaller scale. In any case, Tokyo is awesome and you should go there.
https://eig.org/how-remote-work-is-shifting-population-growth-across-the-u-s/
Moving out of a big metro to a little one, IMHO, is de-agglomeration. Particularly when the fastest growing counties in those smaller MSAs are nice rural counties that are either on the far edge of the smaller MSA or just outside of it.
Moving out of a city center to a rural county, to occasionally go in to enjoy a museum, is also de-agglomeration.
There isn’t all that much in Virginia that isn’t within an hour or two of a city of some sort.
“Consumer-oriented companies, such as Starbucks, have been among the first to adapt to the dramatically shifting demographic trends that began in 2020. Starbucks has closed hundreds of underperforming urban shops since 2020 and has opened hundreds of locations in small towns across the country that are attracting new residents. Since 2012, the proportion of new Starbucks locations in small towns has grown from 2 percent to over 20 percent in 2022.
While Starbucks may not have the cachet that once attracted David Brooks’ attention, it still needs a critical mass of wealthier than average customers who appreciate its relatively expensive drinks to justify opening a new shop.
In 2021, Starbucks opened its first store in Martinsville, Virginia, the former “Sweatpants Capital of the World,” and since then, a flurry of new Starbucks have opened in nearby small towns across southern Virginia, including Franklin, Galax, and South Boston—all communities that have drawn an increasing number of new residents in recent years.”
FWIW.
Personally, my idea of fun is more farmers markets and horse shows than visiting cities. I don’t hate them, but I don’t want to live in one.
Tokyo isn’t like any American city.
Doesn’t matter. For recreation, I like things outdoors that involve horses, dogs, nature, nature photography, agriculture, or gardening.
Horse show? Yes. Hiking to take nature photos? Yes. Heritage Livestock Festival? Yes. Local Crafts Festival? Yes. Garden festival? Yes. Anything involving concrete or big crowds is generally a no. Not my thing. Regardless of country.
I live about 45 minutes outside of a medium sized city, and I don’t think I have driven into the actual city itself since before the pandemic. I have been in Charlottesville recently, which is a bit further, for lunch with friends. For reference, I work remote in tech, have a very good salary, read a lot, and have a well educated family. Most of my siblings have PhDs. I stopped getting degrees after it became obvious my salary wasn’t dependent on it.
So you like that lifestyle and have a bias for thinking it should be that way. Doesn’t mean it is.
The census data that I provided shows this is a widespread trend, not simply my personal bias, and further shows that population in the US is shifting out of large cities.
That shift also has major implications for the Electoral College, which is off-topic here but a hot button issue in elections coverage. Basically, EC votes are expected to shift from places like California, New York, and Illinois to places like Utah, Idaho, and Texas. There was a discussion of that on Bill Maher this week, if you get HBO or Max.
I prefer this lifestyle, but frankly it was easier and cheaper before it became a widespread trend. The large number of people moving out has resulted in greatly increased demand (and prices) for rural homes and land.
In the US! My point was and is that without Tokyo’s growth things may have been worse for Japan. I’m talking about a trend that’s continued for decades and has impacted how Japan developed over that whole time. You’re talking about 3 years of changes in one state in the US. It’s great if you personally like de agglomeration. It’s great that it might have some benefits someplace. But you’re just talking about what you want to talk about and not responding to my point. Japan has cheap housing in commuting distance to Tokyo! It’s not like here. They just build build build. Tokyo hasn’t seen a real increase in housing prices in 30 years!!!
Not just the US - and the trend in the US is NATIONAL, not just in one state, which is why the electoral college has been affected. That was in the articles, BTW. Also, the pandemic started five years ago, not three.
See similar patterns in Britain, Australia, and Ireland,
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53670199
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-01/advice-for-moving-from-city-to-regional-australia/100188726
https://www.liverpooluniversitypress.co.uk/doi/abs/10.3828/tpr.2024.57
My point is, the housing problem appears to be largely a byproduct of agglomeration, and de-agglomerating appears to be the preferred solution for a LOT of people across multiple developed countries.