22 Comments
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Daniel Uslander's avatar

Oren, not that I always agree with you, but when it comes to what is "risk taking", we are on the same page. A trader on a hedge fund desk is only risking his employment at that hedge fund if he screws up in the course of "risk taking", whether he's well meaning and just a lousy trader or a crook. In my mind, he or she is not a true risk taker. If he or she is living beyond their means while they collect outsized bonuses, and it all goes poof, that's on them.

My favorite way to convey the idea of true risk taking is to tell the story the famous golfer Lee Trevino once told when asked by a reporter what its like to stand over a two foot putt to win a championship. He wanted to know about managing all that...pressure and risk. Trevino responded that there was no risk in that putt, no pressure. The worst that would happen is that you win the second place money instead of the first place money. "Pressure" Trevino responded "is when you are standing over a $10 putt and you only have $5 in your pocket. That's pressure."

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Jonathan Pohl's avatar

I gotta say, there’s something deeply nuts about American society: most of the social scaffolding isn’t handled by bureaucrats, tradition, or even communities—it’s funneled through the stock market. And that thing’s gone totally off the rails in the last decade, thanks mostly to algorithmic trading. So we’ve basically made this hyper-volatile, irrational, black-box system the backbone of social stability. That’s insane, if you ask me.

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Nathan Woodard's avatar

Have you ever read "13 Bankers" by Simon et al? It is the best book ever written on the 08 crisis and it includes terrific prescriptions for how to address these points you are raising! Would be awesome to hear your take on that book.

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Jonathan Pohl's avatar

I’m mostly on board with what he’s saying, but honestly, I think we’ve gotta push further. The problem isn’t just the banks—it’s the whole trickle-down, neoliberal fantasy we’ve been sold for decades. The core idea that the only way to build a just society is by shoveling obscene amounts of money into the pockets of moguls, hoping a few crumbs might eventually fall to the bottom—that idea is not just flawed, it’s inhumane. It’s modern poison, cut from the same cloth as eugenics and race science back in the early 20th century.

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Karl's avatar

On this we agree. Don's reconciliation bill coupled with his personal meme coin enrichment scam/crypto industry deregulation are merely two of the latest examples of shoveling money to moguls. As you rightly indicate, it's obscene to allow foreign adversaries to literally place hundreds of millions of dollars in Don's pocket, legally. It's proving more lucrative for Don than being a game show host, the main source of his non-inherited wealth. Don's signature legislation is equally obscene. On top of its redistribution from the poor to the rich, it's putting him on track to break the all time debt record he set in his first term. I'm glad you're in the fight!

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Nathan Woodard's avatar

Totally agree. And I love Simon's idea that regulation should be simple and enforceable--the idea of going back to simpler regulations that are structured such that infractions are impossible to conceal. He basically wanted us to return to Glass-Steagall style regs. If we followed Simons doctrine further hard-core perhaps we might make it illegal to trade naked options and we would force entities to only trade options when they have actually asset exposure. Kind of like equity covered calls only more meta. Personally I'm a big fan of Munger and I bet he would totally agree with you too. I miss him, man.

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Dave's avatar

Other than seeking new Democratic voters (and increasingly Hispanics are voting Republican) it’s not clear to me exactly why the Biden administration decided that it was a good idea to open our borders to millions of unskilled, uneducated people. It ended up costing the Democrats the 2024 election. Allowing a relative small number of the well educated in each year is probability a good idea.

This was one of the most disastrous policies the country has seen in my long lifetime. Importing millions of people who will work for next to nothing just to be here undermines the wages of our working class and exacerbates our national housing crisis when we can’t house our own citizens. It consumed billions of our tax dollars which could have been put to better use.

The age of mass migration is over. People cannot overpopulate their home country and just expect to move to greener pastures. There are no more green pastures. They need to voluntarily reduce their country's population to an environmentally sustainable level, stay there and work to improve their living conditions.

I also don’t understand those who say that we should not deport the majority of these interlopers. They violated our laws and continue to violate them. No one believes that they have a right to visit Paris as a tourist, rent an apartment and live their life there without the permission of the French people and no one would argue that the French have no right to kick their sorry asses out of that country. Why do the same rules not apply to the United States? They clearly do.

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alexsyd's avatar

"it’s not clear to me exactly why the Biden administration decided that it was a good idea to open our borders to millions of unskilled, uneducated people."

Biden, his Sec of Defense and Sec of State Department said quite a few times that the greatest threat to the US was white supremacy. Maybe Democrats really believe this.

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Nathan Woodard's avatar

@Oren great essay! The ruling class of economists like Summers and Krugman have been an incredible let down--they have a lot to answer for--and we are all starving to better conversations and dialogue. This point that you often raise that we do not necessarily "trade" with China is so crucial--the net exchange being that they send us the west depreciating assets and in return the West transfers appreciating assets. To this plebe that does not sound like free trade, and it certainly does not seem to accord with my understanding of the theory of comparative advantages. I could care less about any one thing you are right or wrong about--this work you are doing is crucial so for G_d's sake keep it up.

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Karl's avatar
2dEdited

Oren isn't just boring, he's boring and dangerous. The boring part is refusing to acknowledge that his "new" right is, and has been for a decade, the elite, the establishment. Oren is a classic establishment elite, fashioning his persona to appeal to those running the country. How long do they have to maintain control before they man up and take responsibility, or will whining about the past forever remain their schtick? The "establishment" of which Oren speaks was excommunicated years ago. Oren has never held an actual policy making position and confronted the imperfect tradeoffs the real world imposes, nor the second guessing that inevitably follows. So, his reductive views are somewhat understandable. But don't we all tire of the shit talking of our country, especially since no other nations are held up as having navigated the post war period more successfully? I'll chalk all this up to fundraising necessities, it's always easier in politics to generate opposition than to do the hard work of building consensus in support of change.

The dangerous part is of course more serious than his mere quest for relevance. Like so many fellow establishment elites from my former party, his silence is deafening on the long term consequences from the actions of the leader of his "new" right, Don. No comment on his assault on the rule of law, record setting deficits, the rampant corruption, the hollowing out of the civil service, the fomenting of political violence, the appointment of incompetent loyalists to the power ministries, his attacks on the media/justice system/universities, and obliteration of our western alliances while literally changing sides in the global contest between democracy and autocracy. Might these issues have just a smidge more relevance for the economy than Don's taco tariffing charade?

Oren bought the ticket, now he's taking the ride. Hence his defensiveness. As with those in the seats next to him, defending and enabling Don requires consistent doses of whataboutism and bad faith. These are all people, like JD and Little Marco, who once told the truth about Don. Then, they capitulated, they self-gelded. Publicly. They are no different than Mitch McConnell, whose post January 6th speech spoke the truth, while his vote against conviction spoke to his character. History shows that the acquiescence of elites is necessary for movements like Don's to succeed. It's time for a new right. A new establishment. Ten years on, Oren's version has lost its way, become stale, and slid into a cult of Don. Imagine the leader of the "new" right at 82... We can do better. Good luck America.

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Mike Ware's avatar

🤣😂🤣😂

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Mark Abel's avatar

There is a counter-argument to your claim that tariffs are a no-brainer. Cheap clothing and household items benefit lower quintile families. Capitalism for employers-only has resulted in wage suppression. Corporations, with the help of the state and federal governments, have throttled unions and kept minimum wages artificially low. Reforms that would allow workers to obtain a living wage are the answer, not tariffs.

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Jonathan Pohl's avatar

I’m all in on serious administrative reform. Get the speculators out. Ban the high-volatility trades. Make it mandatory for companies to pay out at least 30% of earnings as dividends. Every worker should own a piece of the company. And if a business is profitable, it shouldn’t be allowed to lay people off—period. Employees aren’t some cheap, disposable input; they should be co-owners, not collateral damage. Yeah, maybe we lose a bit of efficiency. But the trade-off? A hell of a lot more social health.

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Nathan Woodard's avatar

What about distributional effects? It seems like data points against the effectiveness of minimum wage laws, whereas a proper accounting of social costs of distributional effects favors some rational degree of tariffs. And then there is China--can enforced wage inflation address the relationship we have with China or does it exacerbate whatever issues we have?

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Antonia Baur's avatar

This is so well said. On the left, where I have been politically most of my life, NO ONE SAYS THIS unless it's tied to a Utopian Socialism. Thank you, Oren, and thank you, American Compass.

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Katie's avatar

It’s been a few months. It’s too soon to tell. I have my doubts, but you never know.

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Steve Shannon's avatar

It's odd seeing a conservative argue that government should serve the typical American with its policies, when for years conservatives served business and the wealthy, something the current President seems to be continuing to do, on the whole.

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jeff fultz's avatar

Spot on as usual Oren. Great article. Thank you.

Yes, when they tell you they are an expert! Run like heck! lol If they tell you they are an economist, run like heck! lol

Nobody really listened to economists before WWII. After the war they started pawning themselves off as scientists and using math and numbers and graphs to show how scientific they are. How can you argue with all of the fancy math formulas? Especially when you have no idea, and probably the economist didn't either, what that math is saying? Foreign? Gobbly gook lol

I mean listen to Greenspan back in the day talking to Congress in Martian? His gobble gook was hilarious. And all of these congress people are sitting there taking it all in? Funny! I don't think anyone ever walked out on him? Did they?

Your Republican party I would join Oren.

The University = The "New Religion" (The religion of nihilism)

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Karl's avatar

As always you’re spot on Jeff, math can be sooo confusing! Who needs it, I mean, when was the last time you used that calculus you learned in high school? Universities are indeed bad places, full of smart kids sittin around learning all the time, what a waste. How did Oren ever make it through Harvard and Williams College? This is a moment to hold up real truth tellers-the Proud Boys, RFK Jr, Q’anon, Laura Loomer, etc. Just think, without unshackling our best thinkers from the old ways, would we ever have uncovered an intellect like Marjorie Taylor Greene? Why, we might never have known about the Jewish space lasers. The only thing that cornfuses this country boy is why we should listen to Ivy League establishment elites like JD demonize the very institutions that placed them on the elevator to the elite rungs of society they now occupy. Call me crazy, but it sure feels like a cynical ploy to play the rubes in pursuit of political power. What has killed more people: 1) stupid pronouns 2) RFK’s measles vaccine conspiracies 3) Dons’s mismanagement of the pandemic-who can forget his admonition to ingest bleach while standing next to a leading scientist… Remember, Don still publicly brags about “acing” a test meant to detect dementia:). Person, woman, man, camera, tv…

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jeff fultz's avatar

What?

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andy's avatar

It’s a 3D(id happen) world & all coins, whether the vanishingly rare fair, or of the sur/realm, have three sides. Obverse, reverse, edge.

But coins of the realm (which have absolutely zero to do with unknown ideal capitalism) have edges ground down & sharpened into offensive, blood-letting, blades.

Even the paper bills. Especially the paper bills. :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-I5e_GXU4Zo

Geology & the metals fashioned into coin-weapons & Tennyson’s “red in tooth & claw,” the purpose of a system is what it does, not what any camouflage-vested interests say it does … &/but the now hyper-normalized Talkonomy™️ seems to be breaking up that silhouette better than ever - the better to cannibalize the imploding Walkonomy™️ …

… (just kidding: if IP isn’t the beating mechanical heartless of this beast, it’s a significant chamber of horrors that writes manifest in blood this destiny of eternal recurrence … & instead of piloting George Jetson flying cars people drive Elon’s land-ravaging & landfilling econ-rents/mulcting golfcarts & the don’t-worry-be-happy technocrats bright & shining lie other, updated, fabulous futures for all) :

https://interestingliterature.com/2016/01/a-short-analysis-of-canto-lvi-from-tennysons-in-memoriam/

“It’s too hopeful, this poem - more than I am myself.”

And TH Huxley’s (grandfather to Aldous, bulldog to Darwin … wolves/& so/ sheep-pologists all …) verse tribute to Tennyson begins with “Bring me my dead!” Then red-cherry tops the next two final verses with it as well.

https://www.poetrynook.com/poem/tennyson-4

Obverse, reverse, & edge. The overwhelming power of three die•mensions … “in the rooms of her ice-water mansions.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocudepyO90Y

It is tempting, & giving in to temptation happens regularly, to just dismiss people as stupid frailties. But people are just as caught up in, & did not create, this Nature-Matrix POSIWID.

All encompassing, & devouring, Mother Nature is the “let’s you & him fight” adversary that most just seem to auto-reflexively “M’am, yes m’am.”

The (egalitarian … As a Revolt Against Nature misunderstood … or just some more camouflaging) Edge. “What one man can do another can do!” Sharpen those sticks & coin edges, ya’ll, it’s billionaires & bears all the way down:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0ZVuHntc-8

Another Mamet depiction of the bear … & the brass craniums that can’t outwit fired-clay Alec Ball/dwin/dling/return/s from doing the same thing over & over & continuously hoping for different lotto number results … or at least the better leads:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czOpDN8Knr4

See, I’m feeling the featured frailty again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mW6TlPMHXgk

Cat’s in the cradle:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUwjNBjqR-c

Cat’s Cradle:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJKW9dHulKU

And of course a horse is a horse of course, or a Trojan Assinine bearing Ice-9 gifts, Harrison Bergeron, sanitized version:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEgOuZzjI8o

What the above average sum(bitch)s of his parts actually said - was given to say - to the audience that said & says it all:

"I am the Emperor!" cried Harrison. "Do you hear? I am the Emperor! Everybody must do what I say at once!" He stamped his foot and the studio shook.

“Even as I stand here" he bellowed, "crippled, hobbled, sickened - I am a greater ruler than any man who ever lived! Now watch me become what I can become!"

https://ia801400.us.archive.org/30/items/HarrisonBergeron/Harrison%20Bergeron.pdf

Revenge of the nerds begets revenge upon the nerds begets revenge of the nerds … those are the brassinine Ice-9 “go-(& 5D chess)-playing” gonerds that propagate just like the profligates they are & must be here in Ma Nature’s “best of all possible worlds.”

It ain’t misogyny to hit Miss Target but its a deja voodoo all over again mistake to hope she can be hit out of this park. She is this park.

So Money Ball probabilistic plays at the Liars Poker table of Big Short napoleons is how it is.

“I was a bartender. Now I own a boat.” Would you say he’s more Molly Brown, or Molly McGuire? :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mfu_iFS-UY8

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Pedro Leon de la Barra's avatar

One data point that convincingly proves all my grand theories about the world! Yeah!

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