I would like to invite Mr. Oren Cass to engage in discourse with a few other economists who embrace freer markets and have the same goals for the American society to flourish and prosper in seeking out their own happiness.
There are great opportunities for onlookers to gain invaluable insights as individuals like Mr Cass and several people who while agreeing on many aspects of economics, but disagree on the means.
i cannot disagree with your assessment of President Biden's debate performance. However, you said nothing about Trump's lies (e.g., grocery prices have doubled and tripled, "everyone" wanted abortion returned to the states, etc.). Ross Douthat has said that Trump is morally unfit for the presidency. Do you disagree with Peggy Noonan that Trump is a chronic liar? If so, why? If you agree, is it okay?
Regarding a paradigm shift: what we have is half of a paradigm shift, while there is actually doubling down on the other half of the old paradigm (pre-Trump Republican orthodoxy). At the debate Trump bragged about eliminating more regulations than anyone else. Not only was the 2017 tax cut pure pre-Trump Republican orthodoxy; there was little justification for it in a strong economy. If, as you have said, corporate profits have gone through the roof in the past 50 years, why did we need a massive corporate tax cut. From 2016 through 2019 the federal deficit increased by 68 percent. If deficits are going to increase in a strong economy, it is hard to imagine how fiscal responsibility will ever be established. Trump's relative lack of interest in the deficit is, once again, typical of the pre-Trump Republican orthodoxy. So, there is a completely new paradigm on trade and immigration, but very much the old paradigm on deregulation, tax cuts, and inattention to deficits.
Deficit increases are due to increase spending. The change of revenue to the federal govt, after the tax reform in 2017, was negligible and began to increase from there.
The last thing American society should be doing is trying to find new ways to forcibly extract money from the public. Rather, we should be seeking ways to decrease govt spending, diminish govt impact on our lives(from sexual orientation choices to abortion to occupational licensing to regulations and taxation).
Govt is not the solution! Govt is the problem! - Reagan
While all of what you said about Trump may be true(for purpose of progressing along I do not wish to nitpick your assertions), how does Trump ‘being a liar’ differ from Biden(afghanistan, inflation, His son’s laptop and business dealings, his own cognitive health, Burisma relationship, the border, etc, etc, etc), Obama(numerous lies about the ACA to which he admitted they lied to get it passed, political claims/lies about number of black men in prison versus college, spending, taxation, etc), or Clinton(where to start on him? Lewinsky! And, downhill from there).
Here I am again commenting on Compass, this time on the budget proposal. Much more sensible than the alternatives though I think the likely outcome is just to ride the bomb down and there is indeed a doomsday machine waiting.
I wanted to mess around with the model but it wouldn't open probably because I refuse to pay a monthly rental to Microsoft and have an outdated version. I think you could save an earlier version(s) in your site.
Couple of caveats. The BLS statistics are cooked and have been since Bush 1. The cooking has been institutionalized and is accelerating. Shadow Statistics gives a more realistic picture. There is really no such thing as corporate tax. Corporations just collect the tax which is passed along to consumers, accelerating inflation. Or it hits their bottom line leading to off-shoring which contradicts one of your main points. Tariffs also cause inflation but have a more positive impact on industrial policy. So where would I get the tax revenue you need. Give the left their carbon tax but the tradeoff is abolishing the income tax altogether. This would also cause inflation but would provide an offset to consumers. Since the left hates dynamic scoring, they would miss that taxing something generates less revenue.
Agreed! Corporate taxes are a cost on a business. Most(there are others but the one’s I mention will be that which are most effected) of these govt induced costs are offset by higher prices, lower quality, and lower compensations to employees.
CPI is the most obvious. Constant adjustment of the market basket. Recently they took coffee out because the prices didn't come back down like they usually do after a freeze in Brazil which was a couple of years ago but they also screw with the cuts of meat and don't account fully for shrinkflation. The handling of housing costs is odd.
Thinking of subscribing but want to see more content both here and at American Compass first, given the costs.
Since there seems to be no way to comment over at AC, even with a subscription, this would be my platform for commenting in both places if that is OK with you.
I will comment on your Electric Slide article. You are absolutely right about the battery supply chain problem but there is a more fundamental problem-electricity. The same people that are mandating EVs are not only strangling mining but also the generation and distribution of electricity. You note the long time lag that it takes to bring a mine on line, now try a power plant, especially nuclear.
We have evolved beyond any fixes no matter how sensible. I agree with your perceptions but it is just demographic groups switching sides similar to what happened in the Civil Rights revolution. Now the working class, including many minorities are trending Republican while the clerisy and the oligarchs trend Democrat. This will not fix the divisions, merely move the borders. Meanwhile, we live not only in different politics but different realities.
For me, the key thing is to realize that the United States is not viable. America probably is. The United States is not united and the States have no meaningful role. Half the country would just as soon get rid of the other half and it is reciprocal. Anybody trying to rule the entire US is going to fail, perhaps bloodily. So it is time for the National Divorce. Both sides have their vision of America rooted in their reality and it is time to give them the chance to try without war or oppression.
This is the kind of thing Americans want to believe so it might be a great way to get elected. I can't help but get a sinking feeling this was what America needed 20+ years ago but by now the rot is simply too deep. I'm not sure what stable communities or responsive power government can provide when leveled against the supercharged capitalism that tech companies are quickly implementing. It won't matter much if nominally workers have power but machine learning and robots can steal the common inheritance of knowledge/skill and rebrand it as property of capital. If your "new economic thinking" is the best answer we have the average person will quickly be dispossessed and quaint national ideals replaced by the whims of the owners of Google, Microsoft and Nvidia.
What we need to do is to reshape our society so that it fits the human material that actually exists; making it into one in which anyone, regardless of race of cognitive ability, who works hard and plays by the rules can realistically look. forward to a rich and fulfilling life. What might such a society actually look like in practice? How might it be achieved within a democratic capitalist framework?
Glad to see that you are on Substack. I look forward to reading your articles.
I would ask a few questions of any potential replacement for Biden:
• Will you close our Southern border to illegal entry? Preferred answer - yes.
• Will you stop discrimination against anyone to counter past discrimination to others?
Preferred answer - yes.
• Will you protect women's sports and rights to privacy from men?
Preferred answer- yes.
• Will you stop the chemical and surgical mutilation of children as recommended by the UK's Cass
Report?
Preferred answer- yes.
You are hired.
OK. Now I wish the GOP was not promoting "unity". That cannot be decreed, only the feeling of prosperity or unencumberance willl lead to more unity.
I would like to invite Mr. Oren Cass to engage in discourse with a few other economists who embrace freer markets and have the same goals for the American society to flourish and prosper in seeking out their own happiness.
There are great opportunities for onlookers to gain invaluable insights as individuals like Mr Cass and several people who while agreeing on many aspects of economics, but disagree on the means.
I believe we all will profit from a friendly discussion of you may be so willing as to engage here: https://cafehayek.com/2024/07/disagreement-over-means-does-not-imply-disagreement-over-ends.html?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0hRrUTur0mnIChW6vchm1JwYE-pP3XY13c9wnkos3qtSNXTkyjwb7C7xE_aem__vUOT5fCgfPC5pufenPx6Q
i cannot disagree with your assessment of President Biden's debate performance. However, you said nothing about Trump's lies (e.g., grocery prices have doubled and tripled, "everyone" wanted abortion returned to the states, etc.). Ross Douthat has said that Trump is morally unfit for the presidency. Do you disagree with Peggy Noonan that Trump is a chronic liar? If so, why? If you agree, is it okay?
Regarding a paradigm shift: what we have is half of a paradigm shift, while there is actually doubling down on the other half of the old paradigm (pre-Trump Republican orthodoxy). At the debate Trump bragged about eliminating more regulations than anyone else. Not only was the 2017 tax cut pure pre-Trump Republican orthodoxy; there was little justification for it in a strong economy. If, as you have said, corporate profits have gone through the roof in the past 50 years, why did we need a massive corporate tax cut. From 2016 through 2019 the federal deficit increased by 68 percent. If deficits are going to increase in a strong economy, it is hard to imagine how fiscal responsibility will ever be established. Trump's relative lack of interest in the deficit is, once again, typical of the pre-Trump Republican orthodoxy. So, there is a completely new paradigm on trade and immigration, but very much the old paradigm on deregulation, tax cuts, and inattention to deficits.
Deficit increases are due to increase spending. The change of revenue to the federal govt, after the tax reform in 2017, was negligible and began to increase from there.
The last thing American society should be doing is trying to find new ways to forcibly extract money from the public. Rather, we should be seeking ways to decrease govt spending, diminish govt impact on our lives(from sexual orientation choices to abortion to occupational licensing to regulations and taxation).
Govt is not the solution! Govt is the problem! - Reagan
This has been true for over one hundred years.
While all of what you said about Trump may be true(for purpose of progressing along I do not wish to nitpick your assertions), how does Trump ‘being a liar’ differ from Biden(afghanistan, inflation, His son’s laptop and business dealings, his own cognitive health, Burisma relationship, the border, etc, etc, etc), Obama(numerous lies about the ACA to which he admitted they lied to get it passed, political claims/lies about number of black men in prison versus college, spending, taxation, etc), or Clinton(where to start on him? Lewinsky! And, downhill from there).
Trump is just like them! What’s the difference?
“Trump is a liar!”
He’s in good company with the rest of them.
Apart from a high self evaluation that I have not yet decided is accurate, this author is interesting
Here I am again commenting on Compass, this time on the budget proposal. Much more sensible than the alternatives though I think the likely outcome is just to ride the bomb down and there is indeed a doomsday machine waiting.
I wanted to mess around with the model but it wouldn't open probably because I refuse to pay a monthly rental to Microsoft and have an outdated version. I think you could save an earlier version(s) in your site.
Couple of caveats. The BLS statistics are cooked and have been since Bush 1. The cooking has been institutionalized and is accelerating. Shadow Statistics gives a more realistic picture. There is really no such thing as corporate tax. Corporations just collect the tax which is passed along to consumers, accelerating inflation. Or it hits their bottom line leading to off-shoring which contradicts one of your main points. Tariffs also cause inflation but have a more positive impact on industrial policy. So where would I get the tax revenue you need. Give the left their carbon tax but the tradeoff is abolishing the income tax altogether. This would also cause inflation but would provide an offset to consumers. Since the left hates dynamic scoring, they would miss that taxing something generates less revenue.
Agreed! Corporate taxes are a cost on a business. Most(there are others but the one’s I mention will be that which are most effected) of these govt induced costs are offset by higher prices, lower quality, and lower compensations to employees.
How are BLS stats ‘cooked’?
Don't watch the headlines, watch the adjustments later. All in one direction.
Look at the website Shadow Stastics which calculates the old way.
I agree on adjustments. I follow several economists and some of the readers of those economists. A bit of discussion on BLS data is had.
Did you have a specific BLS data point to which you refer?
CPI is the most obvious. Constant adjustment of the market basket. Recently they took coffee out because the prices didn't come back down like they usually do after a freeze in Brazil which was a couple of years ago but they also screw with the cuts of meat and don't account fully for shrinkflation. The handling of housing costs is odd.
Thinking of subscribing but want to see more content both here and at American Compass first, given the costs.
Since there seems to be no way to comment over at AC, even with a subscription, this would be my platform for commenting in both places if that is OK with you.
I will comment on your Electric Slide article. You are absolutely right about the battery supply chain problem but there is a more fundamental problem-electricity. The same people that are mandating EVs are not only strangling mining but also the generation and distribution of electricity. You note the long time lag that it takes to bring a mine on line, now try a power plant, especially nuclear.
We have evolved beyond any fixes no matter how sensible. I agree with your perceptions but it is just demographic groups switching sides similar to what happened in the Civil Rights revolution. Now the working class, including many minorities are trending Republican while the clerisy and the oligarchs trend Democrat. This will not fix the divisions, merely move the borders. Meanwhile, we live not only in different politics but different realities.
For me, the key thing is to realize that the United States is not viable. America probably is. The United States is not united and the States have no meaningful role. Half the country would just as soon get rid of the other half and it is reciprocal. Anybody trying to rule the entire US is going to fail, perhaps bloodily. So it is time for the National Divorce. Both sides have their vision of America rooted in their reality and it is time to give them the chance to try without war or oppression.
This is the kind of thing Americans want to believe so it might be a great way to get elected. I can't help but get a sinking feeling this was what America needed 20+ years ago but by now the rot is simply too deep. I'm not sure what stable communities or responsive power government can provide when leveled against the supercharged capitalism that tech companies are quickly implementing. It won't matter much if nominally workers have power but machine learning and robots can steal the common inheritance of knowledge/skill and rebrand it as property of capital. If your "new economic thinking" is the best answer we have the average person will quickly be dispossessed and quaint national ideals replaced by the whims of the owners of Google, Microsoft and Nvidia.
What we need to do is to reshape our society so that it fits the human material that actually exists; making it into one in which anyone, regardless of race of cognitive ability, who works hard and plays by the rules can realistically look. forward to a rich and fulfilling life. What might such a society actually look like in practice? How might it be achieved within a democratic capitalist framework?
https://shorturl.at/vH4PF
Reshape?
I don’t see a need to reshape anything but govt and reduce the power of govt to intervene, manipulate, and control.