I don’t think that’s quite right. Trump expanded the deficit every year in office in his first term and he owns some of the Covid spending.
On Reagan, there are the uncomfortable facts that Carter hired Volker and Carter passed most of the big deregulation bills. Something you rarely see Rs admit or even know.
I am aware of all that and will remind people as appropriate as well as reminding people that the "Reagan" military buildup was actually started by Carter. There is a question that had Carter been reelected, would he have continued to support Volker through all the pain. Impossible to say but Reagan did and that was uncommon for any politician. Trump has never pretended to be a deficit hawk like most Republicans pretend and a few actually believe. Trump's theory is to grow out of the deficit. I don't know whether that will work but if it does, it is superior to any alternative. I was responding to the articles focus on the connection between tariffs, the stock market and a possible recession. Oren's focus on the longer term rather than the short term stock market decline was entirely appropriate.
Growth is almost always superior to any other form of fiscal rebalancing since cuts and austerity cause huge long term damage (like Britain since 2008). Oren might be focused on the long term, but I doubt Trump is. The man has literal tweets from his first term and Truths in 2024 taking credit for any stock market bump as a vote of confidence in him. With Reagan, there was the plausible position his administration had long term thinkers, but I think it would be asinine to claim that about Trump. Do you really think we will get SS legislation like we did in 1983?
So my position here is that it’s correct for Cass to focus on the long term, but it feels either hopelessly naive or McKinsey-esque deception to claim Trump’s administration is far sighted given what we know today
Trump is famously transactional (i.e. short term) and egotistical beyond the normal politician. However, he is trying to change the trajectory which is a long term goal. Reagan did that with foreign policy but other than breaking stagflation, with much pain, pretty much failed domestically and then squandered what he did achieve by anointing Bush.
I think what you and many are missing is that this is a Humpty Dumpty economy. Once an order established over 30-40-50 years is completely torn apart (this is the MAL accord, no?) it will not be able to be put back together in any form in a time frame to save the lives of a generation. What will be the result of what you hope for:
1) Mass unemployment- $40/hour auto line jobs for the non-high school degree masses? Got news for you there’s gonna be a lot of Mexicans and Canadians out of work when robots take ALL low/no skilled manufacturing jobs. Bring manufacturing back to the US is a sick joke. You’re bringing it to robots not humans.
2) Corporate exodus from the US- Always and forever, capital goes to where it is treated best. Trump/Vance et al are looking to shit all over foreign capital. In the economic depression that is required to rebase the economy, the US will become a wasteland of busted consumers and bankrupt companies.
3) Following on 2, how do you not realize that American exceptionalism is no given- it was not anointed by god! It was a gift we gave ourselves with Bretton woods and ending of the Cold War. Now we want to squander it by shouting down the rest of the world as if we will always and forever be the only game in town.
4) Why not gradualism? Trump has it all- both houses, loyal and talented cabinet and advisors- for the most part. Now, finally, we could pick at the administrative state, fix the tax system to incentive growth not day trading, remove regulations so that we can refine all the oil we produce- the list goes on. He doesn’t have to torch the system- he has the tools to dismantle the silly parts piecemeal. Such a waste.
Anyway, listening to all of you so cavalierly and all muscled up- the only way is destroy the whole system yeah yeah yeah. Hopefully you don’t get what you deserve for being so short-sighted and presumptuous, but I suspect we all will.
Neither did Trump. This mess has been decades in the making. Oren's fictional speech should absolutely be given.
I don’t think that’s quite right. Trump expanded the deficit every year in office in his first term and he owns some of the Covid spending.
On Reagan, there are the uncomfortable facts that Carter hired Volker and Carter passed most of the big deregulation bills. Something you rarely see Rs admit or even know.
I am aware of all that and will remind people as appropriate as well as reminding people that the "Reagan" military buildup was actually started by Carter. There is a question that had Carter been reelected, would he have continued to support Volker through all the pain. Impossible to say but Reagan did and that was uncommon for any politician. Trump has never pretended to be a deficit hawk like most Republicans pretend and a few actually believe. Trump's theory is to grow out of the deficit. I don't know whether that will work but if it does, it is superior to any alternative. I was responding to the articles focus on the connection between tariffs, the stock market and a possible recession. Oren's focus on the longer term rather than the short term stock market decline was entirely appropriate.
Growth is almost always superior to any other form of fiscal rebalancing since cuts and austerity cause huge long term damage (like Britain since 2008). Oren might be focused on the long term, but I doubt Trump is. The man has literal tweets from his first term and Truths in 2024 taking credit for any stock market bump as a vote of confidence in him. With Reagan, there was the plausible position his administration had long term thinkers, but I think it would be asinine to claim that about Trump. Do you really think we will get SS legislation like we did in 1983?
So my position here is that it’s correct for Cass to focus on the long term, but it feels either hopelessly naive or McKinsey-esque deception to claim Trump’s administration is far sighted given what we know today
Trump is famously transactional (i.e. short term) and egotistical beyond the normal politician. However, he is trying to change the trajectory which is a long term goal. Reagan did that with foreign policy but other than breaking stagflation, with much pain, pretty much failed domestically and then squandered what he did achieve by anointing Bush.
I think what you and many are missing is that this is a Humpty Dumpty economy. Once an order established over 30-40-50 years is completely torn apart (this is the MAL accord, no?) it will not be able to be put back together in any form in a time frame to save the lives of a generation. What will be the result of what you hope for:
1) Mass unemployment- $40/hour auto line jobs for the non-high school degree masses? Got news for you there’s gonna be a lot of Mexicans and Canadians out of work when robots take ALL low/no skilled manufacturing jobs. Bring manufacturing back to the US is a sick joke. You’re bringing it to robots not humans.
2) Corporate exodus from the US- Always and forever, capital goes to where it is treated best. Trump/Vance et al are looking to shit all over foreign capital. In the economic depression that is required to rebase the economy, the US will become a wasteland of busted consumers and bankrupt companies.
3) Following on 2, how do you not realize that American exceptionalism is no given- it was not anointed by god! It was a gift we gave ourselves with Bretton woods and ending of the Cold War. Now we want to squander it by shouting down the rest of the world as if we will always and forever be the only game in town.
4) Why not gradualism? Trump has it all- both houses, loyal and talented cabinet and advisors- for the most part. Now, finally, we could pick at the administrative state, fix the tax system to incentive growth not day trading, remove regulations so that we can refine all the oil we produce- the list goes on. He doesn’t have to torch the system- he has the tools to dismantle the silly parts piecemeal. Such a waste.
Anyway, listening to all of you so cavalierly and all muscled up- the only way is destroy the whole system yeah yeah yeah. Hopefully you don’t get what you deserve for being so short-sighted and presumptuous, but I suspect we all will.