It’s infuriating to watch an elite like Oren crumble. Pretending this is just another normal political debate is so absurd that he loses all credibility. History shows that the elites who acquiesce are as guilty, if not more so, than the actual demagogue. It’s shameful. Let’s hope we have leaders who choose to exhibit a spine before it’s too late.
I don’t think that’s quite right. Trump expanded the deficit every year in office in his first term and he owns some of the Covid spending.
On Reagan, there are the uncomfortable facts that Carter hired Volker and Carter passed most of the big deregulation bills. Something you rarely see Rs admit or even know.
I am aware of all that and will remind people as appropriate as well as reminding people that the "Reagan" military buildup was actually started by Carter. There is a question that had Carter been reelected, would he have continued to support Volker through all the pain. Impossible to say but Reagan did and that was uncommon for any politician. Trump has never pretended to be a deficit hawk like most Republicans pretend and a few actually believe. Trump's theory is to grow out of the deficit. I don't know whether that will work but if it does, it is superior to any alternative. I was responding to the articles focus on the connection between tariffs, the stock market and a possible recession. Oren's focus on the longer term rather than the short term stock market decline was entirely appropriate.
Growth is almost always superior to any other form of fiscal rebalancing since cuts and austerity cause huge long term damage (like Britain since 2008). Oren might be focused on the long term, but I doubt Trump is. The man has literal tweets from his first term and Truths in 2024 taking credit for any stock market bump as a vote of confidence in him. With Reagan, there was the plausible position his administration had long term thinkers, but I think it would be asinine to claim that about Trump. Do you really think we will get SS legislation like we did in 1983?
So my position here is that it’s correct for Cass to focus on the long term, but it feels either hopelessly naive or McKinsey-esque deception to claim Trump’s administration is far sighted given what we know today
Trump is famously transactional (i.e. short term) and egotistical beyond the normal politician. However, he is trying to change the trajectory which is a long term goal. Reagan did that with foreign policy but other than breaking stagflation, with much pain, pretty much failed domestically and then squandered what he did achieve by anointing Bush.
I think what you and many are missing is that this is a Humpty Dumpty economy. Once an order established over 30-40-50 years is completely torn apart (this is the MAL accord, no?) it will not be able to be put back together in any form in a time frame to save the lives of a generation. What will be the result of what you hope for:
1) Mass unemployment- $40/hour auto line jobs for the non-high school degree masses? Got news for you there’s gonna be a lot of Mexicans and Canadians out of work when robots take ALL low/no skilled manufacturing jobs. Bring manufacturing back to the US is a sick joke. You’re bringing it to robots not humans.
2) Corporate exodus from the US- Always and forever, capital goes to where it is treated best. Trump/Vance et al are looking to shit all over foreign capital. In the economic depression that is required to rebase the economy, the US will become a wasteland of busted consumers and bankrupt companies.
3) Following on 2, how do you not realize that American exceptionalism is no given- it was not anointed by god! It was a gift we gave ourselves with Bretton woods and ending of the Cold War. Now we want to squander it by shouting down the rest of the world as if we will always and forever be the only game in town.
4) Why not gradualism? Trump has it all- both houses, loyal and talented cabinet and advisors- for the most part. Now, finally, we could pick at the administrative state, fix the tax system to incentive growth not day trading, remove regulations so that we can refine all the oil we produce- the list goes on. He doesn’t have to torch the system- he has the tools to dismantle the silly parts piecemeal. Such a waste.
Anyway, listening to all of you so cavalierly and all muscled up- the only way is destroy the whole system yeah yeah yeah. Hopefully you don’t get what you deserve for being so short-sighted and presumptuous, but I suspect we all will.
This NEEDS to stop. You CANNOT be considered serious if you CONTINUE to make excuses for the uncontrollable, steaming pile of shit this administration is. You can't.
I rely on you to offer a reasonable conservative view. But this isn’t. Explain the pain to a Forest Service employee who had many years of good performance ratings, has a mortgage, and kids, got promoted to a better job, and got fired by email. For what? What’s worth that?
Trump’s economic mismanagement is being spun as strategic genius, but the reality is far different. Carter, not Reagan, appointed Volcker and began deregulation. Trump’s first term saw reckless spending and debt expansion, not fiscal discipline. His trade war is not a bold realignment but a chaotic, self-inflicted wound that is driving market instability and risking a recession. Capital controls signal desperation, not strength. The stock market is dropping because investors see the truth. Trump’s policies are erratic. This is not a controlled burn, it's a five-alarm fire and the fire department got laid off.
Oren you were doing quite well with some of your critiques and praises, but you’re better than this. This seems more on par with some of your FT columns, which are inexplicably weaker than what you write here.
To start, Trump already had a term in office where he oversaw growing deficits every year in office. Trump passed most of the COVID spending and shares some of the blame for those policies. Regarding Regan, you have to acknowledge that Carter hired Volker and Carter passed most of the deregulation acts. Reagan merely extended these policies (much like Biden did with Trump’s policies on China). Being a president is much more than getting policy right, but it’s disingenuous to compare 1981 to 2025. I think you know that.
BTW, Gillian Tett, who Oren touts in this piece, is on Ezra Klein’s podcast this week. Listening to her gives a much different take than Oren presents. Make sure to listen to the end, where says Don terrifies her. Apparently Oren disagrees…
Your rationalizations and test statement are real nice and all, but prices are going up and retirement accounts are going down. Let’s see how people vote on that in 2026.
I read Miran’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System and am confounded that Oren doesn't take his economist bashing propensities to that handwaving mishmash of speculation and self contradiction. This new direction of economic policy is aimed at one thing, the same thing as the neoliberal policies it replaced...keeping the wealthy rich and in power. It is a giant hypothetical meant to rationalize not raising taxes on the wealthy or controlling the rapacious destruction of corporate behavior. It is Bullshit.
There are trade deficit problems and exchange rate problems. Those can be addressed through tariffs and other policy. But what they don't do is create industrial policy in the US that repatriates essential industry. More saliently they don't address wealth inequality. There is zero in all the trade deficit machinations about increasing specifically US workers' wealth and security.
On any given day we can look at wealth in the US and see that 3 families own more than the bottom 50% of the entire US. At any given point in time it is a zero sum argument and the distribution needs to be substantially different. That is what needs to be addressed if security and prosperity for workers is actually what Oren is about. I'm starting to accept that it is not. This global trading charade is another scam to rationalize not raising taxes on the financial elite.
wow Oren, you definitely bring out the trolls and bots! They are scared to death of your ideas! amazing.
Yes, Reagan bought into the Rand viewpoint, especially noted by hiring Greenspan to run the Fed Reserve. The "government is bad" guy as he lived off government work for most of his years as most of them do. And couldn't control interest rates as reflected in the 2000's as 2007/08 crash approached, we were all out of whack on rates. He says he was clueless? In a conundrum? wow? ok
Keep up the great work, your idea of a conservative working persons republican party is one I dream of. Ignore the haters and keep workin! you're on track.
Leaving aside Don’s cult and authoritarian movement, (but make sure to watch his speech at the Dept of Justice yesterday if trolls fascinate you, it will make you proud to be an American), what economy in the world would you prefer to live in? Our new ally Russia perhaps? Maybe Hungary? I tire of the myopia and decadence so prevalent in America. Traveling the world might help.
This has been a worthwhile thread to read so we can block the kind of garbage that got us into our current EXTREME economic inequality. The leaders who got us here will not resolve the crisis.
So far,,,, personally,,, 12.8% over the month. But I take it in perspective. It's just numbers. My personal gain or loss in the market is not the be all end all. My losses to income over 5 decades now due to exported jobs and imported labor are no doubt much much higher. Immeasurable.
Also I'd forgotten the third leg of the neoliberal stool, it's not just the free flow of goods and people but also capital. A 30% tax on money entering to buy Iowa farmland sounds cheap. After all I can't buy one hectare in the yellow river flood plain. I'd be happier with no property sold to non citizens.
It’s infuriating to watch an elite like Oren crumble. Pretending this is just another normal political debate is so absurd that he loses all credibility. History shows that the elites who acquiesce are as guilty, if not more so, than the actual demagogue. It’s shameful. Let’s hope we have leaders who choose to exhibit a spine before it’s too late.
Yes, but Reagan did not author the circumstances that initiated it.
Neither did Trump. This mess has been decades in the making. Oren's fictional speech should absolutely be given.
I don’t think that’s quite right. Trump expanded the deficit every year in office in his first term and he owns some of the Covid spending.
On Reagan, there are the uncomfortable facts that Carter hired Volker and Carter passed most of the big deregulation bills. Something you rarely see Rs admit or even know.
I am aware of all that and will remind people as appropriate as well as reminding people that the "Reagan" military buildup was actually started by Carter. There is a question that had Carter been reelected, would he have continued to support Volker through all the pain. Impossible to say but Reagan did and that was uncommon for any politician. Trump has never pretended to be a deficit hawk like most Republicans pretend and a few actually believe. Trump's theory is to grow out of the deficit. I don't know whether that will work but if it does, it is superior to any alternative. I was responding to the articles focus on the connection between tariffs, the stock market and a possible recession. Oren's focus on the longer term rather than the short term stock market decline was entirely appropriate.
Growth is almost always superior to any other form of fiscal rebalancing since cuts and austerity cause huge long term damage (like Britain since 2008). Oren might be focused on the long term, but I doubt Trump is. The man has literal tweets from his first term and Truths in 2024 taking credit for any stock market bump as a vote of confidence in him. With Reagan, there was the plausible position his administration had long term thinkers, but I think it would be asinine to claim that about Trump. Do you really think we will get SS legislation like we did in 1983?
So my position here is that it’s correct for Cass to focus on the long term, but it feels either hopelessly naive or McKinsey-esque deception to claim Trump’s administration is far sighted given what we know today
Trump is famously transactional (i.e. short term) and egotistical beyond the normal politician. However, he is trying to change the trajectory which is a long term goal. Reagan did that with foreign policy but other than breaking stagflation, with much pain, pretty much failed domestically and then squandered what he did achieve by anointing Bush.
I think what you and many are missing is that this is a Humpty Dumpty economy. Once an order established over 30-40-50 years is completely torn apart (this is the MAL accord, no?) it will not be able to be put back together in any form in a time frame to save the lives of a generation. What will be the result of what you hope for:
1) Mass unemployment- $40/hour auto line jobs for the non-high school degree masses? Got news for you there’s gonna be a lot of Mexicans and Canadians out of work when robots take ALL low/no skilled manufacturing jobs. Bring manufacturing back to the US is a sick joke. You’re bringing it to robots not humans.
2) Corporate exodus from the US- Always and forever, capital goes to where it is treated best. Trump/Vance et al are looking to shit all over foreign capital. In the economic depression that is required to rebase the economy, the US will become a wasteland of busted consumers and bankrupt companies.
3) Following on 2, how do you not realize that American exceptionalism is no given- it was not anointed by god! It was a gift we gave ourselves with Bretton woods and ending of the Cold War. Now we want to squander it by shouting down the rest of the world as if we will always and forever be the only game in town.
4) Why not gradualism? Trump has it all- both houses, loyal and talented cabinet and advisors- for the most part. Now, finally, we could pick at the administrative state, fix the tax system to incentive growth not day trading, remove regulations so that we can refine all the oil we produce- the list goes on. He doesn’t have to torch the system- he has the tools to dismantle the silly parts piecemeal. Such a waste.
Anyway, listening to all of you so cavalierly and all muscled up- the only way is destroy the whole system yeah yeah yeah. Hopefully you don’t get what you deserve for being so short-sighted and presumptuous, but I suspect we all will.
This NEEDS to stop. You CANNOT be considered serious if you CONTINUE to make excuses for the uncontrollable, steaming pile of shit this administration is. You can't.
I rely on you to offer a reasonable conservative view. But this isn’t. Explain the pain to a Forest Service employee who had many years of good performance ratings, has a mortgage, and kids, got promoted to a better job, and got fired by email. For what? What’s worth that?
Trump’s economic mismanagement is being spun as strategic genius, but the reality is far different. Carter, not Reagan, appointed Volcker and began deregulation. Trump’s first term saw reckless spending and debt expansion, not fiscal discipline. His trade war is not a bold realignment but a chaotic, self-inflicted wound that is driving market instability and risking a recession. Capital controls signal desperation, not strength. The stock market is dropping because investors see the truth. Trump’s policies are erratic. This is not a controlled burn, it's a five-alarm fire and the fire department got laid off.
Oren you were doing quite well with some of your critiques and praises, but you’re better than this. This seems more on par with some of your FT columns, which are inexplicably weaker than what you write here.
To start, Trump already had a term in office where he oversaw growing deficits every year in office. Trump passed most of the COVID spending and shares some of the blame for those policies. Regarding Regan, you have to acknowledge that Carter hired Volker and Carter passed most of the deregulation acts. Reagan merely extended these policies (much like Biden did with Trump’s policies on China). Being a president is much more than getting policy right, but it’s disingenuous to compare 1981 to 2025. I think you know that.
BTW, Gillian Tett, who Oren touts in this piece, is on Ezra Klein’s podcast this week. Listening to her gives a much different take than Oren presents. Make sure to listen to the end, where says Don terrifies her. Apparently Oren disagrees…
Your rationalizations and test statement are real nice and all, but prices are going up and retirement accounts are going down. Let’s see how people vote on that in 2026.
2026 will be carnage for Republicans if the market doesn't recover AND go above.
I read Miran’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System and am confounded that Oren doesn't take his economist bashing propensities to that handwaving mishmash of speculation and self contradiction. This new direction of economic policy is aimed at one thing, the same thing as the neoliberal policies it replaced...keeping the wealthy rich and in power. It is a giant hypothetical meant to rationalize not raising taxes on the wealthy or controlling the rapacious destruction of corporate behavior. It is Bullshit.
There are trade deficit problems and exchange rate problems. Those can be addressed through tariffs and other policy. But what they don't do is create industrial policy in the US that repatriates essential industry. More saliently they don't address wealth inequality. There is zero in all the trade deficit machinations about increasing specifically US workers' wealth and security.
On any given day we can look at wealth in the US and see that 3 families own more than the bottom 50% of the entire US. At any given point in time it is a zero sum argument and the distribution needs to be substantially different. That is what needs to be addressed if security and prosperity for workers is actually what Oren is about. I'm starting to accept that it is not. This global trading charade is another scam to rationalize not raising taxes on the financial elite.
Garbage. We won't be reading your garbage in the future.
Also - Reagan ruined our nation and started the ball rolling that has led to the extreme economic inequality and the Plutocracy is now in control
wow Oren, you definitely bring out the trolls and bots! They are scared to death of your ideas! amazing.
Yes, Reagan bought into the Rand viewpoint, especially noted by hiring Greenspan to run the Fed Reserve. The "government is bad" guy as he lived off government work for most of his years as most of them do. And couldn't control interest rates as reflected in the 2000's as 2007/08 crash approached, we were all out of whack on rates. He says he was clueless? In a conundrum? wow? ok
Keep up the great work, your idea of a conservative working persons republican party is one I dream of. Ignore the haters and keep workin! you're on track.
Trolls Bots! go away you're so annoying!
Leaving aside Don’s cult and authoritarian movement, (but make sure to watch his speech at the Dept of Justice yesterday if trolls fascinate you, it will make you proud to be an American), what economy in the world would you prefer to live in? Our new ally Russia perhaps? Maybe Hungary? I tire of the myopia and decadence so prevalent in America. Traveling the world might help.
This has been a worthwhile thread to read so we can block the kind of garbage that got us into our current EXTREME economic inequality. The leaders who got us here will not resolve the crisis.
So far,,,, personally,,, 12.8% over the month. But I take it in perspective. It's just numbers. My personal gain or loss in the market is not the be all end all. My losses to income over 5 decades now due to exported jobs and imported labor are no doubt much much higher. Immeasurable.
Also I'd forgotten the third leg of the neoliberal stool, it's not just the free flow of goods and people but also capital. A 30% tax on money entering to buy Iowa farmland sounds cheap. After all I can't buy one hectare in the yellow river flood plain. I'd be happier with no property sold to non citizens.