The tariffs are not “reciprocal.” They were unilaterally imposed by Trump. That makes a rational discussion of preferred U.S. trade policies going forward more difficult. Walling ourselves off from China is a questionable policy choice. Our 330,000,000 population is about a third of their one billion population. Their consumer middle class continues to grow. They already excel in manufacturing EVs, solar panels, and more. We need to figure out how to trade with them to our mutual benefit. Focusing on trade, not military capabilities makes sense in the long run for both countries. While reaching a deal is not in any way a certain outcome, win-win negations are the best path forward for both countries. We should be in a position to clearly communicate our negotiating positions. The chaotic Trump administration has so far been entirely incapable of performing that task. Doing so would require them to take into consideration the views of corporate leaders and, at least, middle of the road Democratic Party leaders, if we are to re-set our trade policy with a life-span beyond the next few years.
If Americans can live without most items for 3-5 years until new supply chains are made in friendly countries then it can work. They don’t like suffering though. Where will they buy all the stuff they want? You can’t buy baby goods like strollers elsewhere? Lamps? Pharma supplies? Masks and PPE for hospitals? Cheap electronics? Printing books? Cell phones? Plastic moulding for things? Lego? Furniture? China can tell its people to stay home rest for five years without major issue. During COVID people had to stay in a little apartment for 6 months and they did it fine. In the 2008 financial crises the migrant workers when home in the countryside to relax. Can America? USA and its alias, if they have any left, will need remake all these supply chains for most products. Labor intense products like shoes cannot be made in USA as robots can’t do it yet so you will need partner with an India and Latin America. You will need lots of raw materials and critical minerals refined. Urkaine and Russia are at war, corrupt, and not dependable and destroyed mostly so getting them there will take 10 years. What not partner with Canada while they are still willing to listen. I have no problem with Canada joining USA but you need discuss the terms in a mature way, otherwise we may just go and partner with Europe and China instead. What if Canada lets 500 million Chinese immigrate and make Canada into a super power?
The problem with your approach is China is developing markets with the rest of the world, think Africa, Asia Latin America, etc. and is fast approaching the situation where it no longer needs the US market. It is therefore unlikely that your approach will produce the results you want.
I feel sorry for Oren. I think he's a well-intentioned young guy trying to do good things with bad ideas. His opening sentence reveals much ("rather quiet on the tariff front"). This means he's missed the massive contortions our businesses are already engaged in, and the alienation we've invited as we stiff arm our long-time allies. After all, if China is the ballgame, wouldn't a rational human cobble together a group of allies to confront China, rather than pitching our allies overboard? But hey, at least Don elected a liberal PM in Canada! Now that DonOrenomics has been implemented, Oren has become a human pretzel in an attempt to retain a modicum of credibility and maintain the support of his funders. But, he bought the ticket with Don, now he gets to take the ride:). Meanwhile, Don's continuing negotiation with himself continues apace, he just moments ago backed off his own auto tariffs. I just stocked up on popcorn, grown in America, I've always been a karma kinda guy...
Really difficult to take this post seriously- the premise being that Trump would do anything that isn’t inherently corrupt, mean-spirited or both is too ridiculous to continue reading. Come back when you actually put some consideration into the character of the president into your recommendations on his actions.
We’ve made our own corrupt bed in a stupid desire to maintain global hegemony, and now the bills are coming due, and we must lie down in it, while it burns.
We are the evil empire. Until we get Gaza right, all the economic policy masturbation by ‘experts’ and pundits is the proverbial bucket of spit.
Decouple with china assumes that we have alternatives. Covid taught us how dependent we are on china but we have not taken steps for even critical supplies such as pharma. This is because our leaders and our corporations are shortsighted and corrupt. For you to suggest just severing all ties with China ignores the realities that there will be severe shortages, price increases and civil unrest. Do you think billionaires such as Trump musk and others actually care about any of that. The answer is no because the goal is to create unrest so that they can concentrate power in their own hands . The result of your approach will be that the wealthy will be able to afford critical products and supplies and more class warfare.. What you are recommending makes no sense. We need to develop our infrastructure and alternate supply chain including determining what we can build at home with people who want to work (which my guess is will not be many given that millennials don’t even want to go back to the work in offices, let alone factories). Perhaps revisiting our immigration policies is also necessary to get the workers we need to do the jobs that the entitled Americans do not want to do. Decouple with china yes but dont cut off our noses in the process
But Trump is a degenerate liar who can’t be trusted to tell us the truth about the status (or even the existence of) ongoing negotiations and he seems to have overplayed his hand. It also seems like his “rockstar” team could have gamed out the short, medium and long term consequences of their plan.
The crosstalk among Trump team leaders is confusing and creates a tone of deceit or callous indifference to the mounting consequences of their plans.
And the “Art of the Deal” / 4D chess nonsense is completely fictional. Trump is a famously unsuccessful and corrupt businessman while simultaneously being a gifted charlatan and undeniably effective retail politician.
The idea that tech billionaires - the bulk of whom actually built successful companies in part by making exceptional hires - actually view Trump as a business genius peer is complete lunacy.
I completely agree that Trump likes the idea of deal making and I admire his bafflingly deft brand building skills, but this guy is a narcissistic sociopath mafioso who can be easily swayed to move against US interests by flattery, money or the achievement of short-term “mini wins” that primarily feed only his starving ego.
You screw up world trade with economic terrorism, American corporations screw the citizens again is what your saying because they listen to economic terrorists like your argument is . Inflation set to climb 37%because of this ding bat...Your as honest as Trump.
He is now known as the man who screwed everyone, including his supporters...
Bankers and your group are repugnant .. STOP All military spending till you've spent 2trillion on health care and infrastructure and science based education for your citizens fool.... China leads in 57of 64 areas of technology. US only leads in 5 this is why you are losing, you don't spend on education properly and you've spent 14+ Trillion in 20 years on fighting wars for Israel.... Your reality is fake.
Well I certainly hope it goes as Oren suggests. Decoupling from China is important. Left to themselves our corporations can't do it. To level the playing field, there have to be uniform rules for whichever sector is being regulated. I'd like to see congress take away trade status, China is not the good guys. For security we need to rehome a majority of all industries.
Individually the Chinese people are great, intelligent, hard working, they make great friends, I lived a year in Yunnan way up north close to the border of Burma and the old border of Tibet. Some aspects of state control of critical industries have worked well, their form of government is good at somethings. They've tens of thousands of miles of high speed rail. GDP growth the envy of the world. That said they are still authoritarian, corrupt, even genocidal to minorities, of which there are many besides Tibetan and Uyghur that aren't as famous..
Any great argument from a third-party to the arguers, should start with the strengths & weaknesses of each. In this case, nobody learns anything about the existing state of Chinese manufacturing capabilities, especially how advanced their robotics & AI actually already is — and therefore how could anybody judge the solutions provided in this article. Tell the complete true facts and capabilities and vulnerabilities on both sides, and then present your argument — way more believable story.
Oren an excellent sane approach to decoupling with tariffs and legislation. Our country has been devastated by economic globalism. Lots of US workers have lost the American dream so the few greedy capitalists make the profits. The result for the US has been a real net negative. The US needs to restore more of its critical manufacturing and I like your plan. Problem is that Trump doesn’t think rationally. Oren you should become his advisor. Perhaps you can be a positive influence on Trump and help save us from this chaos he is creating.
He could absolutely do this.
Unfortunately, he is entirely too stupid to do this. Also, he doesn't really care about any of it. He just wants China to kiss his ring.
It's all he's ever cared about.
Read the recent Atlantic interview with Trump to understand how he “thinks” https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/06/trump-second-term-comeback/682573/
I wish I could disagree with you.
The tariffs are not “reciprocal.” They were unilaterally imposed by Trump. That makes a rational discussion of preferred U.S. trade policies going forward more difficult. Walling ourselves off from China is a questionable policy choice. Our 330,000,000 population is about a third of their one billion population. Their consumer middle class continues to grow. They already excel in manufacturing EVs, solar panels, and more. We need to figure out how to trade with them to our mutual benefit. Focusing on trade, not military capabilities makes sense in the long run for both countries. While reaching a deal is not in any way a certain outcome, win-win negations are the best path forward for both countries. We should be in a position to clearly communicate our negotiating positions. The chaotic Trump administration has so far been entirely incapable of performing that task. Doing so would require them to take into consideration the views of corporate leaders and, at least, middle of the road Democratic Party leaders, if we are to re-set our trade policy with a life-span beyond the next few years.
If Americans can live without most items for 3-5 years until new supply chains are made in friendly countries then it can work. They don’t like suffering though. Where will they buy all the stuff they want? You can’t buy baby goods like strollers elsewhere? Lamps? Pharma supplies? Masks and PPE for hospitals? Cheap electronics? Printing books? Cell phones? Plastic moulding for things? Lego? Furniture? China can tell its people to stay home rest for five years without major issue. During COVID people had to stay in a little apartment for 6 months and they did it fine. In the 2008 financial crises the migrant workers when home in the countryside to relax. Can America? USA and its alias, if they have any left, will need remake all these supply chains for most products. Labor intense products like shoes cannot be made in USA as robots can’t do it yet so you will need partner with an India and Latin America. You will need lots of raw materials and critical minerals refined. Urkaine and Russia are at war, corrupt, and not dependable and destroyed mostly so getting them there will take 10 years. What not partner with Canada while they are still willing to listen. I have no problem with Canada joining USA but you need discuss the terms in a mature way, otherwise we may just go and partner with Europe and China instead. What if Canada lets 500 million Chinese immigrate and make Canada into a super power?
"President Trump has already shown that he is willing to make course corrections as the responses to his actions materialize"
That's an *extremely* charitable way of describing Trump's penchant for backing down when challenged.
The problem with your approach is China is developing markets with the rest of the world, think Africa, Asia Latin America, etc. and is fast approaching the situation where it no longer needs the US market. It is therefore unlikely that your approach will produce the results you want.
I feel sorry for Oren. I think he's a well-intentioned young guy trying to do good things with bad ideas. His opening sentence reveals much ("rather quiet on the tariff front"). This means he's missed the massive contortions our businesses are already engaged in, and the alienation we've invited as we stiff arm our long-time allies. After all, if China is the ballgame, wouldn't a rational human cobble together a group of allies to confront China, rather than pitching our allies overboard? But hey, at least Don elected a liberal PM in Canada! Now that DonOrenomics has been implemented, Oren has become a human pretzel in an attempt to retain a modicum of credibility and maintain the support of his funders. But, he bought the ticket with Don, now he gets to take the ride:). Meanwhile, Don's continuing negotiation with himself continues apace, he just moments ago backed off his own auto tariffs. I just stocked up on popcorn, grown in America, I've always been a karma kinda guy...
Really difficult to take this post seriously- the premise being that Trump would do anything that isn’t inherently corrupt, mean-spirited or both is too ridiculous to continue reading. Come back when you actually put some consideration into the character of the president into your recommendations on his actions.
We’ve made our own corrupt bed in a stupid desire to maintain global hegemony, and now the bills are coming due, and we must lie down in it, while it burns.
We are the evil empire. Until we get Gaza right, all the economic policy masturbation by ‘experts’ and pundits is the proverbial bucket of spit.
Decouple with china assumes that we have alternatives. Covid taught us how dependent we are on china but we have not taken steps for even critical supplies such as pharma. This is because our leaders and our corporations are shortsighted and corrupt. For you to suggest just severing all ties with China ignores the realities that there will be severe shortages, price increases and civil unrest. Do you think billionaires such as Trump musk and others actually care about any of that. The answer is no because the goal is to create unrest so that they can concentrate power in their own hands . The result of your approach will be that the wealthy will be able to afford critical products and supplies and more class warfare.. What you are recommending makes no sense. We need to develop our infrastructure and alternate supply chain including determining what we can build at home with people who want to work (which my guess is will not be many given that millennials don’t even want to go back to the work in offices, let alone factories). Perhaps revisiting our immigration policies is also necessary to get the workers we need to do the jobs that the entitled Americans do not want to do. Decouple with china yes but dont cut off our noses in the process
But Trump is a degenerate liar who can’t be trusted to tell us the truth about the status (or even the existence of) ongoing negotiations and he seems to have overplayed his hand. It also seems like his “rockstar” team could have gamed out the short, medium and long term consequences of their plan.
The crosstalk among Trump team leaders is confusing and creates a tone of deceit or callous indifference to the mounting consequences of their plans.
And the “Art of the Deal” / 4D chess nonsense is completely fictional. Trump is a famously unsuccessful and corrupt businessman while simultaneously being a gifted charlatan and undeniably effective retail politician.
The idea that tech billionaires - the bulk of whom actually built successful companies in part by making exceptional hires - actually view Trump as a business genius peer is complete lunacy.
I completely agree that Trump likes the idea of deal making and I admire his bafflingly deft brand building skills, but this guy is a narcissistic sociopath mafioso who can be easily swayed to move against US interests by flattery, money or the achievement of short-term “mini wins” that primarily feed only his starving ego.
You screw up world trade with economic terrorism, American corporations screw the citizens again is what your saying because they listen to economic terrorists like your argument is . Inflation set to climb 37%because of this ding bat...Your as honest as Trump.
He is now known as the man who screwed everyone, including his supporters...
Bankers and your group are repugnant .. STOP All military spending till you've spent 2trillion on health care and infrastructure and science based education for your citizens fool.... China leads in 57of 64 areas of technology. US only leads in 5 this is why you are losing, you don't spend on education properly and you've spent 14+ Trillion in 20 years on fighting wars for Israel.... Your reality is fake.
Well I certainly hope it goes as Oren suggests. Decoupling from China is important. Left to themselves our corporations can't do it. To level the playing field, there have to be uniform rules for whichever sector is being regulated. I'd like to see congress take away trade status, China is not the good guys. For security we need to rehome a majority of all industries.
Individually the Chinese people are great, intelligent, hard working, they make great friends, I lived a year in Yunnan way up north close to the border of Burma and the old border of Tibet. Some aspects of state control of critical industries have worked well, their form of government is good at somethings. They've tens of thousands of miles of high speed rail. GDP growth the envy of the world. That said they are still authoritarian, corrupt, even genocidal to minorities, of which there are many besides Tibetan and Uyghur that aren't as famous..
Any great argument from a third-party to the arguers, should start with the strengths & weaknesses of each. In this case, nobody learns anything about the existing state of Chinese manufacturing capabilities, especially how advanced their robotics & AI actually already is — and therefore how could anybody judge the solutions provided in this article. Tell the complete true facts and capabilities and vulnerabilities on both sides, and then present your argument — way more believable story.
You are an idiot
Oren an excellent sane approach to decoupling with tariffs and legislation. Our country has been devastated by economic globalism. Lots of US workers have lost the American dream so the few greedy capitalists make the profits. The result for the US has been a real net negative. The US needs to restore more of its critical manufacturing and I like your plan. Problem is that Trump doesn’t think rationally. Oren you should become his advisor. Perhaps you can be a positive influence on Trump and help save us from this chaos he is creating.
Trump should hire you. Your plan might work. His is chaotic.
Most Chinese companies are the low cost producers. Low cost producers always win.